Democrats' Drive to Turn Texas Blue May Be Harder Than it Seems

Texas Democrats, no doubt pumped up by a growing Hispanic population, have started to mull over the possibility that the Lone Star State could become Democratic for the first time since George W. Bush trounced Ann Richards in 1994.

But a close analysis suggests that may be easier said than done.

More Hispanic voters may mean a tilt toward Democrats in Texas

Newsmax, noting an increase in the Hispanic electorate nationwide, which tended to vote for Obama, suggests that the political trends in Texas will shift toward the Democrats going forward. RealClearPolitics points out that Texas is already a majority/minority state in which non-Hispanic whites make up just 45 percent of the population.

Immigration as a wedge issue

Democratic politicians in Texas point to the immigration issue as something that can be used to drive Hispanic voters to the Democrats, according to Newsmax. Mitt Romney, whose hard-line stance on the issue was noted during debates in the Republican primary, has taken the blame for a poor performance by Republicans among Hispanic voters nationwide.

Texas Republicans have been more adroit at wooing Hispanic voters

However, RealClearPolitics votes that Texas Republicans have proven more adroit at wooing Hispanic voters. Gov. Rick Perry, for instance, managed to grab close to 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in his re-election bid in 2010, according to Newsmax. Perry, whose stance toward immigration was less hard-line than Romney's, has also managed to use economic and social issues to good effect to woo Hispanic voters. Republicans have also elected their own Hispanics to public office, including Ted Cruz who, albeit Cuban and not Mexican, has won a seat in the United States Senate.

White Texans trending more Republican

One other factor that mitigates against Texas trending toward the Democrats is that white Texans have been shifting more toward the Republican Party, as the New Republic notes. While Obama did better with Hispanic voters in Texas in 2012 than he did in 2008, he did worse overall in the Lone Star State, mainly because he did worse among white voters.

Texas trending blue or staying red

Nevertheless, RealClearPolitics notes that Texas Democrats still hope that can leverage the Hispanic vote to at the very least make the Lone Star State competitive again. They believe they have a rising star in the form of San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, who could be competitive in the 2014 governor's race. However Texas Republicans seem to realize that the advantage they have enjoyed in statewide races for the past 20 years will not maintain itself, realizing that they will have to work to preserve it. How well they do may prove to be a model for Republicans nationwide in the task of making the Hispanic electorate competitive and not a lock, like African Americans, for the Democrats.

Texas resident Mark Whittington writes about state issues for the Yahoo! Contributor Network.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/democrats-drive-turn-texas-blue-may-harder-seems-185900265.html

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