Future warming: Issues of magnitude and pace

Public release date: 1-Aug-2013
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Contact: Chris Field
cfield@carnegiescience.edu
650-319-8024
Carnegie Institution

Washington, DCResearchers reviewed the likelihood of continued changes to the terrestrial climate, including an analysis of a collection of 27 climate models. If emissions of heat-trapping gases continue along the recent trajectory, 21st century mean annual global warming could exceed 3.6 F ( 2 C) over most terrestrial regions during 2046 to 2065 and 7.2 F (4 C) during 2081-2100. If warming occurs at this pace, it will probably be the most rapid large climate change in the last 65 million years.

The review, published in the August 2 issue of Science, was conducted by Stanford University's Noah Diffenbaugh and the director of the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology Chris Field.

"With a high scenario for future greenhouse gas emissions, the largest warming occurs over the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but all land areas warm dramatically," remarked Field

The scientists used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), which includes results from 27 different models. They reviewed information about the aspects of climate change that drive biological response; a comparison of current and future climate change with the past, including the rate and magnitude of the change; and the context in which the change is occurring. Results in the CMIP5 archive reflect the current state of understanding about the way the physics of the atmosphere and oceans respond to changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases released by human activity.

The researchers emphasize that there are numerous uncertainties about the magnitude of future climate change, such as energy feedbacks from clouds and the carbon cycle. The largest uncertainty is the level of greenhouse gas emissions from future human activity. Despite these uncertainties several existing conditions, especially ongoing demand for fossil fuels, makes some future climate change a certainty.

"What is perhaps most noteworthy is the rate of change," remarked Diffenbaugh. "For instance, the rapid global warming event that occurred some 55 million years ago was as large as these warming projections, but that event occurred over many thousands of years, not a mere century."

The duo emphasized that the rate of change will ultimately by determined by human decisions and innovations regarding greenhouse gas emissions. "The future of the planet lies in our hands," said Field.

###

Carnegie's Department of Global Ecology was established in 2002 to help build the scientific foundations for a sustainable future. The department is located on the campus of Stanford University, but is an independent research organization funded by the Carnegie Institution. Its scientists conduct basic research on a wide range of large-scale environmental issues, including climate change, ocean acidification, biological invasions, and changes in biodiversity.

The Carnegie Institution for Science is a private, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C., with six research departments throughout the U.S. Since its founding in 1902, the Carnegie Institution has been a pioneering force in basic scientific research. Carnegie scientists are leaders in plant biology, developmental biology, astronomy, materials science, global ecology, and Earth and planetary science.

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AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Public release date: 1-Aug-2013
[ | E-mail | Share ]

Contact: Chris Field
cfield@carnegiescience.edu
650-319-8024
Carnegie Institution

Washington, DCResearchers reviewed the likelihood of continued changes to the terrestrial climate, including an analysis of a collection of 27 climate models. If emissions of heat-trapping gases continue along the recent trajectory, 21st century mean annual global warming could exceed 3.6 F ( 2 C) over most terrestrial regions during 2046 to 2065 and 7.2 F (4 C) during 2081-2100. If warming occurs at this pace, it will probably be the most rapid large climate change in the last 65 million years.

The review, published in the August 2 issue of Science, was conducted by Stanford University's Noah Diffenbaugh and the director of the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology Chris Field.

"With a high scenario for future greenhouse gas emissions, the largest warming occurs over the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but all land areas warm dramatically," remarked Field

The scientists used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), which includes results from 27 different models. They reviewed information about the aspects of climate change that drive biological response; a comparison of current and future climate change with the past, including the rate and magnitude of the change; and the context in which the change is occurring. Results in the CMIP5 archive reflect the current state of understanding about the way the physics of the atmosphere and oceans respond to changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases released by human activity.

The researchers emphasize that there are numerous uncertainties about the magnitude of future climate change, such as energy feedbacks from clouds and the carbon cycle. The largest uncertainty is the level of greenhouse gas emissions from future human activity. Despite these uncertainties several existing conditions, especially ongoing demand for fossil fuels, makes some future climate change a certainty.

"What is perhaps most noteworthy is the rate of change," remarked Diffenbaugh. "For instance, the rapid global warming event that occurred some 55 million years ago was as large as these warming projections, but that event occurred over many thousands of years, not a mere century."

The duo emphasized that the rate of change will ultimately by determined by human decisions and innovations regarding greenhouse gas emissions. "The future of the planet lies in our hands," said Field.

###

Carnegie's Department of Global Ecology was established in 2002 to help build the scientific foundations for a sustainable future. The department is located on the campus of Stanford University, but is an independent research organization funded by the Carnegie Institution. Its scientists conduct basic research on a wide range of large-scale environmental issues, including climate change, ocean acidification, biological invasions, and changes in biodiversity.

The Carnegie Institution for Science is a private, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C., with six research departments throughout the U.S. Since its founding in 1902, the Carnegie Institution has been a pioneering force in basic scientific research. Carnegie scientists are leaders in plant biology, developmental biology, astronomy, materials science, global ecology, and Earth and planetary science.

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AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-08/ci-fwi072913.php

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Obesity doesn't reduce chance of getting pregnant with donor eggs

Public release date: 31-Jul-2013
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Contact: Diane Duke Williams
williamsdia@wustl.edu
314-286-0111
Washington University School of Medicine

In women who use donor eggs to become pregnant through in vitro fertilization (IVF), those who are obese are just as likely to become pregnant as normal weight women, according to a new report.

Studies have shown that obesity is associated with lower chances of pregnancy using IVF, but most of this work is limited to women using their own eggs. Research on outcomes for obese women using donor eggs has had mixed results.

The new analysis by investigators at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis and the University of California-Los Angeles pooled and analyzed data from more than 4,700 women in earlier studies.

The results are available online in the journal Human Reproduction.

"Our study suggests that obesity does not significantly affect whether a woman will become pregnant with donor eggs," said first author Emily Jungheim, MD, assistant professor of obstetrics and gynecology at Washington University School of Medicine. "This supports the argument that doctors shouldn't discourage obese women from pursuing treatment if they need donor eggs to conceive."

The report, a meta-analysis, included patients from five earlier studies conducted over the past decade, in addition to data from 123 egg donor recipients from the Washington University Infertility and Reproductive Medicine Center.

Many IVF programs have arbitrary body mass index (BMI) restrictions that help them determine whether women can receive treatment. These cutoffs, according to Jungheim, need to be re-examined. "There's still a lot about obesity that we don't know when it comes to reproduction," she said.

Investigators aren't sure whether the quality of a woman's eggs or her uterus are most affected by obesity. As a result, several studies have focused on donor egg recipients to provide some clues.

In this analysis, obesity (defined as a BMI over 30) was not associated with a difference in pregnancy rates when compared with pregnancy rates in women with a normal BMI. The data from this study also indicates that obesity was not associated with differences in the rates of miscarriage or live birth among obese women who used donor eggs, when compared with women of normal weight. However, live births and miscarriages were not reported in all of the studies.

"In general, most obese women who want to get pregnant are eventually able to conceive," Jungheim said. "We need to find out what specifically goes wrong in obese women who don't. We think other factors besides BMI are involved."

###

Funding for this research comes from the Women's Reproductive Health Research Program of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). NIH Grant number (K12HD063086).

Jungheim ES, Schon SB, Schulte MB, DeUgarte, DA, Fowler SA and Tuuli MG. IVF outcomes in obese donor oocyte recipients: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Human Reproduction vol. 28, (8), published online July 11, 2013.

Washington University School of Medicine's 2,100 employed and volunteer faculty physicians also are the medical staff of Barnes-Jewish and St. Louis Children's hospitals. The School of Medicine is one of the leading medical research, teaching and patient care institutions in the nation, currently ranked sixth in the nation by U.S. News & World Report. Through its affiliations with Barnes-Jewish and St. Louis Children's hospitals, the School of Medicine is linked to BJC HealthCare.

URL: https://news.wustl.edu/news/Pages/25644.aspx

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AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Public release date: 31-Jul-2013
[ | E-mail | Share ]

Contact: Diane Duke Williams
williamsdia@wustl.edu
314-286-0111
Washington University School of Medicine

In women who use donor eggs to become pregnant through in vitro fertilization (IVF), those who are obese are just as likely to become pregnant as normal weight women, according to a new report.

Studies have shown that obesity is associated with lower chances of pregnancy using IVF, but most of this work is limited to women using their own eggs. Research on outcomes for obese women using donor eggs has had mixed results.

The new analysis by investigators at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis and the University of California-Los Angeles pooled and analyzed data from more than 4,700 women in earlier studies.

The results are available online in the journal Human Reproduction.

"Our study suggests that obesity does not significantly affect whether a woman will become pregnant with donor eggs," said first author Emily Jungheim, MD, assistant professor of obstetrics and gynecology at Washington University School of Medicine. "This supports the argument that doctors shouldn't discourage obese women from pursuing treatment if they need donor eggs to conceive."

The report, a meta-analysis, included patients from five earlier studies conducted over the past decade, in addition to data from 123 egg donor recipients from the Washington University Infertility and Reproductive Medicine Center.

Many IVF programs have arbitrary body mass index (BMI) restrictions that help them determine whether women can receive treatment. These cutoffs, according to Jungheim, need to be re-examined. "There's still a lot about obesity that we don't know when it comes to reproduction," she said.

Investigators aren't sure whether the quality of a woman's eggs or her uterus are most affected by obesity. As a result, several studies have focused on donor egg recipients to provide some clues.

In this analysis, obesity (defined as a BMI over 30) was not associated with a difference in pregnancy rates when compared with pregnancy rates in women with a normal BMI. The data from this study also indicates that obesity was not associated with differences in the rates of miscarriage or live birth among obese women who used donor eggs, when compared with women of normal weight. However, live births and miscarriages were not reported in all of the studies.

"In general, most obese women who want to get pregnant are eventually able to conceive," Jungheim said. "We need to find out what specifically goes wrong in obese women who don't. We think other factors besides BMI are involved."

###

Funding for this research comes from the Women's Reproductive Health Research Program of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). NIH Grant number (K12HD063086).

Jungheim ES, Schon SB, Schulte MB, DeUgarte, DA, Fowler SA and Tuuli MG. IVF outcomes in obese donor oocyte recipients: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Human Reproduction vol. 28, (8), published online July 11, 2013.

Washington University School of Medicine's 2,100 employed and volunteer faculty physicians also are the medical staff of Barnes-Jewish and St. Louis Children's hospitals. The School of Medicine is one of the leading medical research, teaching and patient care institutions in the nation, currently ranked sixth in the nation by U.S. News & World Report. Through its affiliations with Barnes-Jewish and St. Louis Children's hospitals, the School of Medicine is linked to BJC HealthCare.

URL: https://news.wustl.edu/news/Pages/25644.aspx

---

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AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-07/wuso-odr073113.php

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Ugandan shilling flat as central bank seen dovish after inflation data

By Elias Biryabarema

KAMPALA (Reuters) - The Ugandan shilling was little changed on Wednesday as traders bet the central bank will keep interest rates on hold next week to bolster the economy, brushing off a rise in inflation.

Year-on-year headline inflation for July jumped to 5.1 percent from a revised 3.6 percent last month, fuelled by a surge in food costs, data showed on Wednesday.

At 1112 GMT, commercial banks quoted the currency at 2,580/2,590, unchanged from Tuesday's close.

"The central bank is really keen to see economic activity become more vigorous and I think this imperative will trump any inflationary fears," said Ahmed Kalule, trader at Bank of Africa.

The shilling has traded mostly in a tight 2,500-2,620 range against the dollar this year, underpinned by a cautious policy stance from the central bank.

"Clearly the odds seem to favour a stay of the rate which I think accounts for the lukewarm reaction of the market to the inflation outturn," added Kalule.

The Bank of Uganda's next rates announcement is on August 5.

The bank has cut rates only once in seven months amid fears a hasty loosening could reverse gains it has made in controlling inflation.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/ugandan-shilling-flat-central-bank-seen-dovish-inflation-133330381.html

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Pirates drill Cardinals 6-0 to sweep doubleheader

PITTSBURGH (AP) ? Forget about the best record in baseball, the lead in the NL Central and the buzz of a city giddily envisioning the end of two decades of despair.

After a euphoric doubleheader sweep of reeling St. Louis on Tuesday that propelled them to the top of the division, the Pittsburgh Pirates ? yes, the Pirates ? are ready to get greedy.

"We want more," manager Clint Hurdle said.

Keep pitching like this, and that shouldn't be a problem.

Three hours after Alex Presley's grounder caromed off the glove of St. Louis reliever Kevin Siegrist and rolled into shallow left field to give the Pirates a taut 2-1, 11-inning victory in the opener, the Pirates breezed to a 6-0 victory in the second game behind rookie starter Brandon Cumpton.

Working with usual Triple-A battery mate Tony Sanchez ? making his major league debut ? Cumpton (1-1) scattered three hits over seven innings to extend the Cardinals' losing streak to a season-high six straight games.

"Pitching inside has been my thing all year," Cumpton said. "I didn't want to get away from it. I wanted to force the issue."

All it did was compound the issues for St. Louis, which has scored all of five runs in the last 56 innings. Even worse, catcher Yadier Molina is likely headed to the disabled list after leaving in the top of the fourth inning of the second game with a sprained right knee.

The knee has been bothering the All-Star for weeks. An MRI earlier this month revealed inflammation. After trying to play through it, Molina believes the better course of action is some rest so he can be ready for the stretch drive.

"I'm a guy who wants to be on the field playing," Molina said. "But right now I need time."

The injury is the latest setback for a team that appeared the class of the majors at the All-Star break but now finds itself 1? games behind the resilient Pirates. The sweep pushed Pittsburgh to a season-high 22 games over .500 (64-42). The last time their record was this gaudy was 1992, which also happens to be the last time the beleaguered franchise reached the postseason.

It's a destination that appears well within the Pirates' reach, even if they opt to keep their wallets closed at Wednesday's trading deadline. A pitching staff that keeps topping itself has allowed the Pirates to overcome a series of injuries.

Cumpton didn't even spend any time with the big league club during spring training. On Tuesday he found himself polishing off arguably the biggest day at PNC Park since it opened in 2001.

"Coming out of spring, (Cumpton) was 13th on our starting pitching depth chart," Hurdle said. "You trust the people that are working with the players and they've been confident about Brandon's improvement."

It's a rise that took a little while longer than St. Louis rookie Tyler Lyons (2-4), though the right-hander has cooled off since winning his first two starts in spectacular fashion earlier this year.

Lyons gave up four runs, three earned, in six innings. He struck out five and walked one but received no help from a reeling offense and some sloppy play in the field.

A couple hours after Presley's slapper off Siegrist (0-1) won the opener, the fortuitous bounces kept on coming. The Pirates took a 1-0 lead in the second when a rare passed ball by Molina let Jose Tabata sprint across the plate. Molina was done for the night in the top of the fourth when the right knee pain he's been battling for the better part of a month flared up again. He was replaced by Rob Johnson.

The absence of their leader further weakened the Cardinals, and things quickly fell apart.

While Cumpton kept the NL's top offense in check, Pittsburgh poured it on with a little help from St. Louis left fielder Matt Holliday. The Pirates took a 2-0 lead on Jordy Mercer's RBI single before McCutchen stepped in. He drilled Lyons' pitch deep to left but Holliday appeared ready to track it down at the wall. Instead, the ball popped off the heel of Holliday's glove and into the stands.

Lyons placed both hands on his head in shock while the packed bleachers let Holliday have it. Holliday's night didn't get any better an inning later when he overran Josh Harrison's flyball to the wall, allowing Harrison to make it all the way to third.

"It's a hard game," St. Louis manager Mike Matheny said. "Our guys have been making a lot of good plays. Every once in a while there's tough ones you don't make."

Harrison never made it home, but by then Cumpton had all the backing he would require.

Cumpton needed just 87 pitches to get 21 outs. He received a loud ovation as he headed to the dugout, the latest in a series of unheralded Pirates pitchers to rise from obscurity and help propel the franchise into the midst of a pennant race.

The staff takes its cue from ace A.J. Burnett, who worked seven emotional innings in the opener. Burnett struck out nine and walked three while allowing one run on three hits. He was long gone, however, by the time Presley stepped in with Martin on in the 11th.

"It's a battle, it's fun," Burnett said. "Let's roll from here. Let's keep going."

NOTES: The series continues on Thursday. Adam Wainright (13-6, 2.51 ERA) starts for the Cardinals against Jeff Locke (9-3, 2.15) ... St. Louis sent struggling reliever Marc Rzepczynski to Cleveland on Tuesday in exchange for minor league infielder Juan Herrera. Rzepczynski had a 7.84 ERA in 10 1-3 innings this season with the Cardinals ... Pirates 2009 first-round pick Tony Sanchez went 0 for 3 with an RBI in his first major league start at catcher.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/pirates-drill-cardinals-6-0-sweep-doubleheader-031643421.html

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Ba Hons CG Arts & Animation @ UCA Rochester Course Blog ...

Day 05, Sunday

Figure 01. Breakfast

I know my previous posts have been pretty much picture filled with little text, but these were the pre-conference shifts, now for the main event!

Today I walked around the conference on it's first open day, saw some great stuff, spoke to some interesting people, swapped business cards, and networked - which I will elaborate on in other posts.

In the afternoon there were some really cool events just for us SVs (Student Volunteers), the first being a few guys from Blizzard to talk about what it's like to work at Blizzard Entertainment and how they got into the industry...

Figure 02. Blizzard logo

'Journey inside the iron gates of Blizzard Entertainment and engage directly with some of the creative forces responsible for the cinematics of the World of Warcraft, Diablo and StarCraft franchises'

Clip 01. World of Warcraft : Mists of Pandaria Cinematic Trailer

We were screened some cinematic trailers of they're recent work, then the details began.

? The mediator for this talk was?Scott Campbell

He is currently Art Recruiter at Blizzard Entertainment.
His previous roles include ;

- Recruiting Supervisor at Walt Disney Animation Studios and Disney Research
- Senior Recruiter at The Walt Disney Studios
- Senior Recruiter at Digital Domain, and
- Contract Recruiter at Lucas Digital (ILM, Skywalker Sound)

Education : BS, Political Science - Santa Clara University

??Marc Messenger?- Project Director

Figure 03. Marc Messenger

Marc's current role is Senior Cenematic Artist at Blizzard Entertainment, previous to this he has 21 years experience as a self employed Illustrator / Storyboard Artist.

Education : Film - Chapman University

??Jeff Chamberlain?- VFX Supervisor

Figure 04. Jeff Chamberlain

Jeff is currently a Lead Cinematic Artist at Blizzard Entertainment.
Education : James Madison University.

??Mike Kelleher - CG Supervisor

Figure 05. Mike Kelleher

Mike Kelleher is currently a CG Supervisor at Activation Blizzard.

Previous roles include;
FX Supervisor at Blizzard Entertainment
Technical Director at The Orphanage
Lead TD at Renkewitz Studios.

Education : BS, music - Indiana University Bloomington

I've listed a little bit of information about each speaker to show the diversity of backgrounds and how they each worked their way up to the roles they are currently occupying.

Blizzard are currently hiring.... so if you're interested - APPLY!
Full-time opportunities - Here
Summer Internships and University Relations - Here

After this interesting talk about Blizzard and the people behind the work coming from this studio, we had another treat!

Figure 06. Pixar Logo

Our next special guest speaker was the Director of Pixar's new short film - The Blue Umbrella!

Clip 02. Snippet of the new Pixar Short - The Blue Umbrella

Saschka Unseld - Director of Pixar's The Blue Umbrella

Figure 07. Saschka Unseld

This short film is currently accompanying the screenings of Monsters University in cinemas.

Saschka Unseld is from Germany and studied at Filmakademie Baden - W?rttemberg.

On Sunday afternoon (21st July 2013) we were excited to sit down in a small room with a handfull of SVs for this exclusive insider talk by Saschka Unseld, the newest of the Disney Pixar Short Film Directors. We were shown a screening of the short film 'The Blue Umbrella' followed by an indepth breakdown of how the project proceeded.

It all started when Saschka was walking along the street one day and saw an umbrella that was broken and had been discarded upon the curb-side. It was one of those moments (every artist should know what I mean) when you see something and you suddenly wonder what the backstory of this now inanimate object had been. So he took a photo of this broken umbrella that he had felt so sad for (he showed us the picture), stored it away in his memory for any future inspiration and continued with his journey.

While Unseld was working away at Pixar, he decided to pitch an idea to John Lasseter thinking why not... everybody working there can pitch ideas for a potential film. He explained to us that in order for a film to be pitched to Pixar, three ideas must be available and each idea presented to John Lasseter, then if Lasseter likes any of these ideas the best one will be selected to take further.

Unself then went on to show us the stages of the short film, previous inspiration, storyboards, animatics, ?pre-viz and then the final stage for each clip selected to show the progression. Following this he presented to us his pitch, exactly how he presented it to Lasseter to show us how things can change during the making of a film from pitch to final product and how some things might not have worked if they hadn't been run through the team so many times and solved in a better way.

Following this brilliant walk through of The Blue Umbrella film, he offered up a chance for Questions and Answers, and as there was nothing else scheduled for after this event he freely said it doesn't matter how many questions, we're in no rush so I'll answer them all. 2 hours after the talk was supposed to end we came out of that room full of answers and inspiration from this very nice guy.

Then after that was dinner and drinks (Mojitos that for some reason became stronger each round).... healthy ;)

Figure 08. Dinner

Source: http://ucarochester-cgartsandanimation.blogspot.com/2013/07/siggraph-2013-anaheim-ca-diaries-day-05.html

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